Front page of today’s NYT.
NYT is not a reliable source of news.
The picture below nicely captures the current and future relationship between the stalwarts of American media and the Trump administration. This is the biggest story in decades. (Hint: Trump and his cronies - who will try to save their own skins - are not the lions.)
“IT WAS A PERFECT CONVERSATION WITH UKRAINE PRESIDENT!” - President Trump
Straight from our great president, don’t know what else y’all want.
Secretary of State Pompeo and four others receive subpoenas.
House Democrats Issue First Subpoena in Impeachment Inquiry
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/27/us/politics/house-democrats-impeachment-trump.html
One of the people named in the subpoena - Kurt Volker, envoy to Ukraine - resigned as a US diplomat today… story first reported by the paper at Arizona State. Volker scheduled to be deposed next week.
McCain Institute head Kurt Volker steps down as US diplomat
https://www.statepress.com/article/2019/09/sppolitics-mccain-head-steps-down
Trump told Russian officials in 2017 he wasn’t concerned about Moscow’s interference in U.S. election
Subpoena for Rudy Giuliani
Trump Pressed Australian Leader to Help Barr Investigate Mueller Inquiry’s Origins
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/30/us/politics/trump-australia-barr-mueller.html
pompeo was on call with Ukraine LOL
“You cannot judge my Stock Market performance since the Inauguration, which was very good, but only from the day after the big Election Win, which was spectacular due to the euphoria of getting Obama/Biden OUT, & getting Trump/Pence IN. WentI up BIG between Nov. 9 & Inauguration!” - President Trump
Uhh, does Trump not realize that Obama literally couldn’t stick around for a 3rd Term and that he was running against Hillary?
Trump’s performance should be measured about a year or two into his presidency just like Obama and every other modern president.
Judging by how great he made America again, I’d say that’s fair.
You uhhhh, understand that… there actually isn’t a statistically significant exogenous relationship between Trump being in office and stock markets rallying, right? Markets have rallied/dipped under both democratic/republican administration. Which should totally falsify this as an indication of his presidency being either good or bad for markets.
HP, I like you - I like everyone on this forum. We all agree on far more than what we disagree on. But please, use that noggin of yours and don’t be like the rest of the world out there who incorrectly apply our understanding of economics markets (which are driven by supply and demand) to our understanding of financial markets (which our primarily driven by herding mentalities).
And I’ll be consistent on this too - because, this ain’t Trumps stock market any less than it isn’t O’bamas either.
true. but if you think about it. if you were the president. you can do a lot of things that can spook the market if that was your main intention.
^ I agree with this and am persistent in reminding people that politics should be completely removed from market discussions, policy is a distraction and in the end doesn’t do jack for the reasons you’ve mentioned.
THAT SAID, the Trump administration deserves an asterisk, because like all rules there are exceptions and the reality is the tax cut to corporations meaningfully moved effective rates lower and directly impacted valuations in a visible way. That was an anomaly and I personally think we will ultimately regret that move over the longer haul as debt and deficit come in to focus, but it clearly moved markets. Arguably, trade is also having an effect on markets this year, which again is an anomaly because this type of protracted conflict with a leading trade partner is also atypical of any of the recent history. The thing about regressions, etc is that you need to recognize when the regime has shifted or a discrete point belies long term averaged data.
tax cuts are a short term gain for long term losses.
trade wars are a short term loss for long term gains