Base case scenario: -… AM Individual IPS… 30 out of 36 Behaviouial… 8 out of 9 DB IPS… 8 out 36 Corner Port… 2 out of 17 Bond …11 out of 14 Risk Mgmt …10 out of 13 Reverse Cash…5 out of 14 VWAP…11 out of 14 CPPI…0 out of 9 Attribution…9 out of 9 FX…2 out of 9. IN SUM:- AM score is 96 out 180 or 53.3% PM Having read all and every the posts on AF I know I dropped 5/60 (and that covered most of it) so for prudency we will assume 85% i.e. 51/60. So the morning is going damage me and the afternoon will pull me through. I am assuming a MPS of 66% so my hypothetical is 69% is a squeak of a pass. Not taking any bets though…feeling so nervous. Anyone’s thoughts???
dude u will pass with the kind of score in the morning. thats good going in the morning too. my guess on MPS is 56-58%
Hey JarJar, I really appreciate it. I started in September…1st time of taking…I have some serious compulsive disorder…meaning that I worked flat out for a long time…but cannot believe I got so owned in the morning. I would say tho that 56% is very low for an MPS. 64% at worst wouldn’t you say…I know there is that 2004 anomaly of 54% MPS but wasn’t that when both parts (am and pm) were essay. Anyways thank you Jar Jar. Any other thoughts people? Thanks in advance.
In doing similar calc’s for PM, I think it would be safe to assume at least 4-5 wrong on ethics, plus an additional 5 for unknown mistakes. I trully think a 46-48/60 in the afternoon will end up being a very good score. Too many curveballs in ethics to be certain.
Have included the ethics curveballs in my calcs. I agree tho thos ethics questions stank. Remember the one on your wife not being allowed to participate!! WTF.
For me, I would add about 20 to the DB IPS and take out 20 from FI, Risk Mgmt, and VWAP (in total). I think I did better on the corner portfolio, but will have zeros for rev cash carry and whatever #11 was I am thinking 45 right in the afternoon would be good for me…more realistic is 40 out of 60. I look forward to re-registering and having to wait 9 months to retake it
well…I will definitely post my results on this thread so you can all laugh at my insane overconfidence. I get the impression lots did well early in AM and bombed late in AM. PM seems to be hot for most. Remember tho that PM is very juicy in terms of points. U get 1 right and that is similar to 3 points in the AM. But I suspect u already knew that… x
Apollo, dont thank me. thank urself for doing good on a tough exam. anyways to tell u why i believe it will be late 50s(or i guess it would be!) Rewind to 2007 august, i was awaiting L2 results. ppl then were talking about 66% MPS andi was thinking abt my next steps after failing! my expectation was at most a 57%, which was a fail according to most. and guess what! i passed miraculously and so did some others whom i knew and who were more screwed than me on the exam. having said that i believe its a tight rope in the late 50s .to pass a 60 should be good and ur scores definitely look passable. For me i am hoping that history repeats itself as i am still arnd the 55-60 mark. anyways enjoy the remaining time till the results. best of luck.
so u all really think that 70 mps is just a nonsense
what does everyone else think of my scores and their scores
I’ve conservatively estimated a MPS of 63%. This is purely based on the 70% of the top 10% scores theory (assuming a 90% score). As many have stated before, a 90% for the top 10% would be very difficult, if not impossible to hurdle. That said, MPS could be much lower than the 63%.
Anyone who’s counting on a passing score below 70 is wishfully thinking. That is the only score at which you’re guaranteed to pass unless stated otherwise.
I am using a far more basic logic. I am assuming given how easy the afternoon was that the top 1% will get roughly 90% in morning and 100% in the afternoon. Making an MPS of around 66%. And if I wanted to be even more basic. Most people did very well in the afternoon so 65% as a 50% cut-off doesn’t seem crazy.
fair point farley…but with people (audibly) crying in the morning paper you have to assume that this will not be an average year
Apollo22 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Base case scenario: -… > > AM > > Individual IPS… 30 out of 36 > Behaviouial… 8 out of 9 > DB IPS… 8 out 36 > Corner Port… 2 out of 17 > Bond …11 out of 14 > Risk Mgmt …10 out of 13 > Reverse Cash…5 out of 14 > VWAP…11 out of 14 > CPPI…0 out of 9 > Attribution…9 out of 9 > FX…2 out of 9. > > IN SUM:- AM score is 96 out 180 or 53.3% > > PM > > Having read all and every the posts on AF I know I > dropped 5/60 (and that covered most of it) so for > prudency we will assume 85% i.e. 51/60. > > > So the morning is going damage me and the > afternoon will pull me through. > > I am assuming a MPS of 66% so my hypothetical is > 69% is a squeak of a pass. Not taking any bets > though…feeling so nervous. > > > Anyone’s thoughts??? ================================================================ i think MPS would be >60% but < 65% just my 2 cents
equity_research_nds’s ------------------------------------------------------- > Base case scenario: -… > > AM > > Individual IPS… 28 out of 36 > Behaviouial… 9 out of 9 > DB IPS… 10 out 36 > Corner Port… 15 out of 17 > Bond …4 out of 14 > Risk Mgmt …10 out of 13 > Reverse Cash…0 out of 14 > VWAP…0 out of 14 > CPPI…9 out of 9 > Attribution…9 out of 9 > FX…6 out of 9. > > IN SUM:- AM score is 95 out 180 or 53% > > PM > > Having read all and every the posts on AF I know I > dropped 8/60 (and that covered most of it) so for > prudency we will assume 80% i.e. 48/60. > so my “GUESSTIMATE” for my score is 67.22% so if 70% is the MPS then i will be re registering for June 2009 DAMN YOU MORNING SESSION
What do you think of my scores vs. your scores equity_research? Other guys/girls, please compare also. Will be interesting to see in the final outcome perception vs. reality.
apollo i posted my guesstimate… i dont know wat different i will do next year to get a 70% wat are your comments for my estimates ?
Interesting…I suppose you could make an argument saying I am too bullish on the PM by 2%, which will bring me firmly down to where you are at. Feel very comfortable with my AM guesstimate tho…other people thoughts?
Seems in the ballpark equity_research doesn’t it? U wouldn’t want to bet against a 67% would u… Anyway I hope u pass…u have been very active/smart with your postings in recent months.