Ok last year’s exam was easier then this year’s. They had a 46% passing rate last year. This year’s exam was about 20% harder imo. Passing rate will be mid to high 30%. 8 more days. Godspeed.
56%
39%, the exam was a real killer. The higher rate for lev 1 could be related to potential problems for June 09, i.e. They increase bar in advance.
Given angoff method of grading, the 3 answer choices this year means a higher min. passing score, right? I say 42%
49
slave2theCFAI Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Given angoff method of grading, the 3 answer > choices this year means a higher min. passing > score, right? > > I say 42% I disagree with this statement. Angoff standard setters are shown each question and asked what percentage of qualified candidates should get this question right. The number of answer choices shouldn’t really change that. Now, if you have a bunch of charter holders angry about the 3 choice change who consciously try to “engineer” an unfavorable outcome, I suppose you could be right.
With Angoff method, on a single question with 4 possible answers, the lowest probability of getting it correct is 25%. With 3 possible answers, the lowest probability of getting it correct is 33%. All else being equal, if there are 10 or so questions that are extremely hard that they think no one will get correct, those 10 questions would be assigned a probability of 33% instead of 25%, thus bringing the min. passing score higher. I’m sure there’s more complexity to this, but I’m just observing the obvious nature of things.
Interesting point regarding the assigned probability (previously .25 vs. currently .33). A 32% increase. Would this have explained part of the jump in L1 pass rate which experienced a similar jump from .35 to .46, a 31.4% increase?
Doubtful, as CFAI said the 4th answer (called a low quality distractor) was only chosen 2% of the time. So 2% of the time, you go from a .25 to a .33 That doesn’t seem like it could cause a huge spike in rates.
I predict it to be related to the unemployment rate. My guess is that the level 1 pass rate was so high in June 2009 because a ton of people were (and still are) unemployed and had all the time in the world to study (you know who you are). If these people all get jobs by the end of this year and get caught up with work, etc. , etc. the pass rate will drop substantially. If unemployment is still high I think the pass rate will be pretty high
as no one has chosen it yet, I say 46%
verse214 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I predict it to be related to the unemployment > rate. > > My guess is that the level 1 pass rate was so high > in June 2009 because a ton of people were (and > still are) unemployed and had all the time in the > world to study (you know who you are). > > If these people all get jobs by the end of this > year and get caught up with work, etc. , etc. the > pass rate will drop substantially. If > unemployment is still high I think the pass rate > will be pretty high I believe this is the case as well. High unemployement = more time to study for this to ensure a higher chance of employement in the future!
35%
What about a different spin on unemployment… of course this all depends on if the number of people taking level 1 went up or down in 2009 versus the previous year. In previous years more people were employed and their place of employment paid for and required them to sit for the exam. So, people just went through the motions and did not put in the time (bringing down the pass rate). Now, with the unemployment rate rising and possibly some of those people losing their jobs, they didnt sit for the exam weren’t counted in the pass rate and therefore creating a candidate pool that was more serious about the exam.
imo, is there a thread for the unemployed L1 ers? mayb we can kickstart one to have an idea…
I am really surprised that you guys don’t think a 33% chance on a WAG and a 50% chance if you could eliminate one answer is not going to have a significant upward impact on both scores and pass rates…I thought a 27% year-over-year increase in the Level 1 pass rate was quite telling…I am guessing a pass rate in the high 50’s to low 60’s, with an MPS hovering somewhere in the 67-70% range…
There were enough ‘wrinkles’ in this exam that I think the MPS will be a bit lower; like the 64-67 range. That said, I stand by my original prediction of a pass rate of 51% as well as my personal prediction of Band 10. 
I think I missed the cut by like 1 or 2 questions!! That will be more difficult for me to accept if the pass rate is > 50%. It will also be a difficult discussion with the wife. She put up with a lot. I’m having no trouble waiting now. Planning to enjoy the weekend.
gangrel Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I am really surprised that you guys don’t think a > 33% chance on a WAG and a 50% chance if you could > eliminate one answer is not going to have a > significant upward impact on both scores and pass > rates… The problem with that logic is that you assume the question with either 3 or 4 choices is of the same difficulty. It was either on here or a different post, but someone here stated that the fourth “throwaway” choice was answered 2% of the time, which is why they got rid of it. It really depends on how they structure the “wrong” choices vs. the right answer.
Updated (repeats and ranges are omitted): 30% Damil4real 35% chowder 37% BiPolarBoyBoston 38% TheAliMan 39% evgong 40% sublimity 41% wake2000 42% nirjraina 43% JensensalphaMale 44% mdecav 45% adalfu 46% london1 47% pjc2000 48% agrover 49 % Alchemist1320 50% akinzo 51% bos_IT_guy 52% CF_AHHHHHHHHH 54% 4Tay 55% bid_offer_shark 56% gdoggwins 60% oldboy321 89% golfer 99% charlottekid
46% pass for level 1. This is 35* ~1.3 Thefore, I say I say about 58% for level 2.