Probability Again

lola Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > LongOnCFA Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > 1 to 3 > > > > IS NOT .333 it is .25 > > > > .5*.5=.25 > > > > Therefore the events are independent. > > > > answer was .25 and independent. > > > that’s how I reasoned it out as well. Thanks, > LongOnCFA. Got scared there for a sec, I already > found a bunch of mistakes, didnt want this to be > another one. > > Dubs, it was on 1010. odd # page, second Q from > the bottom considering I don’t even remember the question I am thinking it is a -1 lola did you have 1010 and 1111?

wow lola how do you remember it was on an odd # page? haha.

Same as when you get d/e for wacc and need d/a or e/a d/e is 1/3 d+e=a 1+3=4 d/a=.25 Or… Win once, lose three times… Total times = 4 Quarter of the time over the long term you win! Don’t finance guys gamble??

don’t agree, it was two events with 50% happening and odds 1 to 3 to happend together (independant???)

uh what don’t you agree with?

Agree with independant…but I thought the question asked for the probability of either of the 2 events happening?..but I might be wrong…or maybe I misread…(1010/1111)

if the question is a or b happening, it’s 50+50-25 =75

I think we will never know what the correct answer will be. CFAI will not give answers and we can not look at the problem again. Since most of people think it is 1 to 3, I will take that. We just need to make sure we understand this concept correctly now. It is good to know 1 to 3 odd means 25%. I have taken graduate level probability class and I aced it. And they got me on this simplest question. Lol. Everything can happen. I hardly read the probability sessions of the book. I totally deserve it.

delhi, there were only 2 choices there… .25 or .33 neither equals the probability of either happening.

or maybe that was another probability question…can’t believe they asked 2. I would be lucky to get either right…can’t figure out this stuff…

-1 for me, thanks to me not reading the question properly. I’ve been back from lunch for two minutes and I’ve already realized I mis-read two problems and got the answer correct. So, now I’m officially worried. I had assumed these ones that seemed so easy were ones I got correct. I had hoped they were frequent enough to offset any of the ones I wasn’t sure about. Now that I can’t be sure about any of them, I don’t think my chances are good of passing this exam. I went through the problems too quickly and should have focused on the questions more.

man, don’t beat yourself up overthat. EVERYONE misreads stuff on this exam. If they didn’t, someone would have aced it by now.

TheDubs Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > lola did you have 1010 and 1111? yeah

MeddlingKids (love the scoobydoo reference) I feel the exact same way. I’m starting to realize that the questions I felt GOOD about I got wrong, so that does not bode well for the ones where I closed my eyes and picked a letter… I’d like to find solace in he fact that others misread the questions, but the the truth is, it doesn’t matter what others did in terms of whether I pass or fail. I’m starting to think I might be screwed.

well it kinda does. The more ppl that get it wrong, the better your chances are at making the curve.

Christ. It’s gonna be a long 2 months.

Smarshy Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > MeddlingKids (love the scoobydoo reference) I feel > the exact same way. I’m starting to realize that > the questions I felt GOOD about I got wrong, so > that does not bode well for the ones where I > closed my eyes and picked a letter… > > I’d like to find solace in he fact that others > misread the questions, but the the truth is, it > doesn’t matter what others did in terms of whether > I pass or fail. I’m starting to think I might be > screwed. Nice, somebody finally gets the reference! Yeah, I was hoping the CFAI would have been more straightforward in their questions, but it seems increasingly likely that they tried to test how well we were reading the question. I wasn’t really confident before, but now I’m definitely going to start re-reading the Level 1 stuff after New Years.

Meddling…I disagree…the problem with discussing questions on this forum is that most of the questions that are discussed here are generally the trickier ones (thats why they stick in your head). Chances are most people got those wrong. Also, in general people on this forum tend to be in the top 2 quartiles. As long said ^, its all about the curve.

delhirocks Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Meddling…I disagree…the problem with discussing > questions on this forum is that most of the > questions that are discussed here are generally > the trickier ones (thats why they stick in your > head). Chances are most people got those wrong. > > Also, in general people on this forum tend to be > in the top 2 quartiles. As long said ^, its all > about the curve. Well, hopefully those tricky ones were few and far between. I was hoping the ones being discussed on here were ones I had already thought I may have gotten wrong. The ones I’ve been missing so far were the ones I thought I nailed. Oh well, guess I’ll just have to wait and see. Speaking of waiting, this reminds me of waiting to find out if I was admitted to my college of choice. For months I was debating whether or not I made the cut. I finally got the big envelope, and…ended up deciding not to go anyway.

You decided not to go there, or not to go to college?