I don’t think you can even become a CFA charterholder with out a college degree.
Smarshy Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > You decided not to go there, or not to go to > college? I decided not to attend that particular college, but rather my “safe school” to save money.
Did anyone get the probability question: there is a 0.5 chance of a stock price rising, what is the chance of only having no more than one price rise over the course of 5 days…?? I thought that it was 05^5 and since there was 5 ways that a stock price can not rise more than once, I multiplied it by 5, getting 0.15625… is this the same question in discussion? cos if it is, its seems like i totally miss read the question…
i think you should use Bernoulli: 5!/ [4! * 1!] * 0,5 ^ 1 * 0,5 ( 5-1 ) = 5 * 0,5 = 0.15625, u did it diffrent way but it is correct they question they are discussing it other Q
damn, i didnt even do any of those calculations… i just thought of it like a capital budgeting question… theres a probability of each event happening individually… and theres a probability of each event happening concurrently… therefore, they aren’t mutually exclusive… so, they must be independent…
Oh cheers sylwester, was getting worried that I got the answer totally wrong…
-2 for me… i just did .5^5 i think sigh. i hate this board at times.
for the folks who attempted 2020/2121 the question was: find probability of stock rising atleast 4 times out of 5 in the trading week and the answer was : .1875 5*0.5^4*0.5 +1*0.5^5*0.5^1
I thought the both questions should have the same answer between 1010 and 2020 tests. no more than 1 rise = 0 rise and 1 rise no less than 4 rise = 1 down and 0 down(5 rise) Since down prob = rise Prob = 50% , chance for 0 rise = chance for 0 down, and so on. So both answers should be the same, in this case, 0.1875 am I right now? I had 0.15625 though. -1 for me. Steve
Dsylexic Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > for the folks who attempted 2020/2121 the question > was: find probability of stock rising atleast 4 > times out of 5 in the trading week > > and the answer was : .1875 > 5*0.5^4*0.5 +1*0.5^5*0.5^0
Ahh… yeah I think 0.1875 is the right answer… forgot to add no rises… -1 for me…
i got .1875
Question on the joint probability for a sec: I thought the question said: 50% chance of event one occuring 50% chance of event two occuring. I think the question than said “If event one occurs, there is a one to three chance of event two occuring.” I am pretty sure “one to three” was not the joint probability of event one and two occuring, but rather the probability that event two occurs if event one occurs. Therefore the probabilty of event one and event two occuring is .125% (.5 * .25) not .25%, the events are related, and it doesn’t matter if you used 1 to 3, or 1 in 3.
well how did u get the right answer then? .125% was not a choice…
I’m with LongOnCFA. Again.
No, the choices were descriptive, not specific values on my form (1010).
Methinks it was a simple binomial probability question. http://faculty.vassar.edu/lowry/binomialX.html 5 choose 4 * Psuccess^4 * Pfailure^1 = 5 * (0.5)^4 * (0.5)^1 = 5 * (0.5)^5 = 0.15625 Absolutely 100% sure about this one.
Oh, talking about the probability of stock price rising 4 days outta 5 question, by the way
Agreed on that stock question I was going back to the original subject, i.e. the question regarding the “one to three” trick, and the question if the two events described were mutually exclusive, exhaustive, independent or related.
I would agree with you noncool except for the fact you forgot to account for the probability of 0 ups in 5 days. the question asked what was the prob of no more than 1 up day, which means 0 days and 1 day.