If this new lead is true then we are in for one helluva an explanation. Good news (if you can call it that) will be that the friends and families will finally get some sort of closure on the status of their loved ones
Wreckage is right at the end of the plane’s range in a straight line if it turned back. Right along that satellite arc. Sounds like it ran out of fuel and crashed. Potentially the crew/passengers were already dead due to some kind of electrical fire and smoke (which would explain the transponder failure) or decompression.
Sometimes the simpliest story is the most accurate.
Though I’ll admit the Dr. Evil hiding a 777 in his secret liar because it was shippping some secret weapons technology was pretty cool. Or all those that thought the plane evaded dozens of military radars in its quest to reach the deserts of Kazakhstan. That was cool too. But I’m guessing this is going to be a pretty simple mechanical failure/physical event type outcome.
That doesn’t make sense. If there was some horrible fire or mishap, why would you make a sudden turn west and then fly for several hours towards the vast sea of nothing? At the very least, you want to fly back toward the airport, any nearest airport, or anywhere so people can find you and sort out what happened.
pilots know how much fuel they have and can estimate where they will end up
Well considering where the confirmed satellite transmission was (either the extremely unlikely North course or the South course where debris may have now been found), the plane seems to have turned west and then headed south back over Malaysia. It may have been trying to return to an airport but everyone died or the plane become inoperable before then. It then continued on autopilot until it ran out of fuel and crashed.
Also consider Malaysia is a mountainous region. The safest approach back into Kuala Lumpur for a plane without full electronic systems or capabilities would probably be over the water. To approach Kuala Lumpur over the water you need to turn west, cross the pennisula and then head south. Which is what seems to have happened. But for whatever reason the plane didn’t manage to land but rather continued on until it ran out of gas.
That’s what I think too. Decompression > all pass out/die > plane flies in straight line into the middle of Indian Ocean. Unless… the debris doesn’t belong to the missing plane. Then all conspiracy theories are back on the table.
Even if the debris isn’t from the missing plane, I think they’ve narrowed this down based on the satellite data. The search zone in the South Indian ocean is small(ish) based on two potential paths built from extrapolating the satellite pings sent until the plane crashed. They know the plane is there or in the north region (it has to be at the end of one arc or the other). Since the north arc is highly monitored by military radar and could be observed for wreckage via satellite quite easily, the south arc is much more likely.
The fact they have debris in the zone where they expect it is assuring. But even if it’s just an old rusty whaling ship, they know where the plane is now, give or take a few thousand square miles.
one issue with the terrorist argument is that if it was that, the terrorist usually wants to make a big public statement. no point in crashing the plane in the middle of nowhere ocean to do that.
Here is where the debris was found versus the two flight paths projected based on satellite communications data and the maximum range of the aircraft based on fuel. Graphic courtesy of the BBC:
One conspiracy theory suggests that a Boeing 777 has fuel capacity to last over 13hrs. So what if the airport crew topped off the fuel tank instead of only putting 7hrs worth? That could case the plane to reach even the middle of Africa and definitely Northern Asia. Nothing can be ruled out until the plane has been found…