the economic cycle and the pass rate on the CFA Level 2

Just look at this: I see the logic of this is as follows: when the times are hard, CFAI decreases supply of the charterholders by cutting the pass rate. when times are good the pass rate goes up. this year they HAD TO let more Level 1 candidates to enter since the CFAI are competing with some alternative programs (FRM, CAIA etc). so one who want to predict PR-2010 is better to read business media. SORRY FOR TYPOES!

Go away please.

DSLHU is a funny chick! LMAO.

soddy1979 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Go away please. +1

soddy1979 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Go away please. First purchase this forum. Then ban me. chears your eers.

Posted by: DSLHU (IP Logged) [hide posts from this user]

sigh …play nice kids

I was thinking along the same lines as DSLHU as well. If you think about it, the job market is terrible right now. Had the L3 pass rate been higher, think of all the new CFA charterholders who will have a difficult time finding CFA-type work. CFAI’s reputation will be bashed, the charter will be thought of as having decreasing value, etc.

Agreed with 4Tay. Having a higher pass rate for L1 and using L2 as a choke point seem to support this theory.

I reviewed the historical pass rate and I got to conclusion that next year the PR will be less then 35% we saw in 2002 (since today the times are harder than in 2001). I would bet on 30%… perhaps it will be psycologically right 32%.

Don’t listen to the haters. Your theory is perfectly plausible. There is such a lack of transparency in the CFA grading procedures that it would be naive to assume that they are not manipulating the pass rate somehow. But of course, there is the alternate argument - that a high pass rate implies that it is HARDER to pass. This would happen if the exam is graded on a curve, but the passing score is less volatile than the average score. For instance, lets say that everyone studies harder and the average score increases by a lot but the passing score increases by only a little bit. While this would result in a higher pass rate, it would also mean that any single candidate would need a higher score than usual to pass. So, if you accept that the pass rate is positively correlated to the economy, either of these theories could be true, depending on if you believe people study harder in good times or in bad times. People might study harder in bad times out of a sense or urgency, or they might study harder in good times because of greater confidence or because they feel more free to take time off from their jobs. Of course, we cannot draw any certain conclusions, since CFAI doesn’t tell us the average score, or even the passing score for any of the exams.

This conjecture just doesn’t hold any weight for me. I don’t think pass rates really have anything to do with economic conditions and the pass rate next year for L2 will definitely be higher than 30-32%. It will most likely be over 40% as always.

Well, the CFAI grading process is transparent. (Look at the section called Grading on P.9.) What is not transparent is how CFAI pick the experts who assist in the decision of how they set the MPS. So in tough economic time, the experts *could* agree that the bar needs to be set higher to accommodate for the real world demands (e.g. analysts need to know more and perform better on their jobs). This is why I believe the theory is possible. I don’t think CFAI is manipulating the MPS. But the MPS could have a correlation with market demands, which is probably reflected in the expert’s opinions.

CFAI does not manipulate anything. They fairly grade your exam (but they do not tell you what is your grade). CFAI also defines the pass rate. I guess it is not related to the average score. Say, you got 76% of the answers. CFAI will define if you passed or not without any relation to the average score; they will decide that this year they are passing x% of the candidates. the pass score is the function of the pass rate. so with the same 76% you can pass in the year X and fail in the year Y, no connection with the average score.

eltia, we are talking the same thing. Hello Mister Walrus, could you be so nice as to tell me who exactly definded me as a CFA hater???

No, I meant that you should not listen to the people who said “go away”, i.e. the haters.

DSLU, You are funny guy… Your mulltiply failure post made me laughing a lot.

YeeS_Mos Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > DSLU, You are funny guy… Your mulltiply failure > post made me laughing a lot. Thank you, I gonna take it as a compliment. Was this time band 4 your first or second attempt? I’ll see you when (and if) you will fail your 3rd attempt. Btw, do you have any contacts of 6timer?

For those who missed… I AM COPYING IT AND DEVOTING TO ANYONE WHO HAVE COURAGE TO CONTINUE AFTER THE 3RD FAIL ON… FROM THE DAIRY OF A MULTIPLE LEVEL 2 LOSER 2007. Fail. Band 5. That’s OK. Many talented individuals fail the Level 2 from the first try. So what? I gonna nail it the next year… 2008. Band 10. I almost had it!!! Oh, come on, I almost had it!!! There were just one question or two I missed… Never mind, I’ll do it the next year like Bernie Madoff, for now my goal is to get maximum >70% in sections. Next year I pass for sure, the question is if I got to >70 team, post my results on AF and get a job offer the next day. 2009. Band 4… Feeling discouraged. DSLHU says that I should not re-take after the second attempt. He says multiple loser fail since they are not suit for the profession and since they are failures. What a moron!! I sent him three dozens STFU on the forum. Another guy wrote him ‘suck up’. Good stuff. I know Abe Lincoln and Churchill did not quit so I gonna tear this exam the last year. The victory would be so sweet… 2010. Band 5… See, I am improving… But go bears, we will rape the exam the next year… … 2015. Band 3. That is the second year I did not post my results on AF. 2016. Band 3. I gonna find a female Level 2 Candidate to marry her. That it since I am to invest every year 450 hours of study on weekends and on weekdays. My wife divorced me long time ago and I hope that if I were the same board with my girlfriend… Hm… but what will happen when she passes next year… 2020. I am 40 and donna give up. FU, DSLHU!! Band 6. … … … 2040. Hay, guy, do you know what normal backwardation is? Yes, I am asking you. Come on, get into my cab, I gonna explain you. All the drivers in our depot know I used to be Level 2 Candidate on the CFA program… for… several years… Now you know what!! I passed that exam 3 years ago!! I nailed it, I succeeded, I gave all my hart to it. Now I am Level 3 Candidate… So? Did I pass the Level 3? Come on, not so fast. It could take time. You know, Abe Lincoln…,1043495 Please do what you said you would. Seriously though, best of luck.