this is one of the easiest bets to win . Bet a house on HC. Im gonna put down 5K at -144 money line
Better odds out there. Actually arbitrage opportunities on those lines. Shows the stupidity of the average gambler. If this was fifteen years ago, I would have personally closed the spread. Not worth my time today.
I had to build out the model in Excel to take a look at the arb opportunities. Is there a quick and easy way to do this without? Not that excel is long and hard (twss), but I was wondering if there is more of a back of the napkin type approach to this.
How do you are something like this? Is it hair that the probabilities add up to more than 1, so you can be guaranteed to win more than you lose if the weights are done right?
Well, some books are offering hillary at +100, so with field at +123 doesn’t take a math wiz. Simple algerbra to size your bet So you win the same amount either way. But, yes, excel works well for the multi winner possibilities. Golf and team playoff props were gravy cause most can’t see the arb. You have to do the math. Soccer with win tie or lose was another. Anywhere that math was needed was prime pickens. Why am I sharing? Need a fall back if I go broke.
When I was 16 I worked in a small shop that made printed circuit boards. One of my jobs was electroplating the contacts. They’re not solid gold: they’re gold electroplated onto nickel electroplated onto copper.
For what it’s worth, when I applied for my first Visa card, I listed my occupation as electrochemical engineer.
A bit early in the day to be drinking so heavily, yes?
^ It’s 5:00 somewhere in the world.
damn autocorrect. I don’t even know how it turned “do” into are.
Yes, but TRUMP electrical contacts are solid gold. If the Trump name is going to be on it, it has to reflect Quality with a Qapital “Q”.
i like DRUMPF
Honestly, if Trump wins the GOP primary, I wouldn’t count him out to win it all. So many unknowns in a long campaign. If it’s Hillary vs. Trump and some crazy scandal breaks against Hillary (which is not improbable), watch out. Few months ago took him seriously for the GOP nom and he’s now the favourite.
One thing I don’t understand about Trump (and I’m actually being serious):
Why does he even want to be President? I can understand some of these career politicians wanting to be President, because that’s the pinnacle of the political career. But Trump’s not a politician. He’s a businessman, and he is a good one. Why would you want to neglect your own enterprise to take on the President job? (Unless this was a ploy all along to generate publicity.)
I am reminded of the quote by Eric Hoffer: “A man is likely to mind his own business when it is worth minding. When it is not, he takes his mind off his own meaningless affairs by minding other people’s business.”
Because he wants to make American Great again.
Well Trump is a narcissist with an enormous ego. So it is natural for someone with that personality type to want to be President with all the attention and power it brings.
Although I wonder if a year ago Trump really thought he could get to where he is now. I got the feeling initially when he ran that he was doing it largely for publicity in order to sell books and promote his brand. Once the wind turned against him, he would blame the establishment and exit the race. But the wind never turned against him and now he actually might become President after all!
Have you ever seen a dog chase a car barking like a maniac? Well, Trump is the dog that actually cuaght the car and doesn’t know what to do next.
^^ love this
Sounds like something a joker would say.
trump is undeniably a bad businessman. he has grown his inheritance at a rate that is lower than the S&P 500’s rate of return and with much greater volatility, AND this includes that fact that he was handed the CEO job of the company which paid him several million a year. his sharpe ratio is so bad, that he would be fired by every investor willing to give him money. at best, you can call him a below average businessman.
Have continually heard people say this, but where is the evidence? How do yout turn $1 million (his original loan from his father) to $9 billion in ~40-45 years with the stock market? His father didnt die until 1999. It’s not like he inherited some obsene sum of money 45 years ago.