You’re right. I don’t understand. The market perception before brexit was stay. And the market perception of the November election is that neither candidate will cause a mass move or, as previously stated above, HRC could be given a very high probability. Was ohai saying something else? Sounds like you don’t agree on the handicapping. Place your bets.
i don’t have much confidence to bet on these issues. My posts are merely opinion at best. My opinion of course is shaped by me, our PM and my fellow colleagues which in turn is shaped by our choice in media and journals we read… There is a saying in my family - we don’t know much, even what we think we know are in most cases not right.
the difference between Brexit and the US election is that most polls for the two weeks leading up to the Brexit vote, including the day before, showed that “Leave” had a higher chance of succeeding when you put a layer on the results for expected voter turnout. the case is different for the US election. virtually all polls i’ve seen show hilary well in front, even after putting on a layer for expected voter turnout.
Was it Mark Twain that said, “If you don’t read, you are uninformed. If you do, you are misinformed.” Something like that anyway.
You guys are now dead on topic (this rarely happens). 
It’s about probabilities. The market sucks hard at realistically estimating probabilities in certain situations (these are the situations I become intensely interested in). The chance of drawing a red ball is roughly 50% at this point. The probability of severe volatility for years if red is drawn is “very high”, the probability of a massive down-shock is “quite high”. Do the math, using any realistic probabilities, Trump threat is not priced in.
BTW, Brexit was a double facepalm. I called a good ways out, at SPX>2100, it was time to make preparations…and I also called that the market would not make preparations. Sure enough the market procrastinated until about a week out, and then was like “oh we better start pricing in some risk here”. Golly you think? Don’t have a calendar?? I already placed bets back when prices were best, because you can’t run for the door after the mob bolts, you are just the mob then. The attention deficit disorder population now runs the market.
Yup, and they actually can’t turn the car. When I got the hell out in Q407, the final bit of evidence I used to gauge probabilities, was from BlackRock. Well if they knew there was a high probability of all hell breaking lose next quarter (they did), why didn’t they swerve and avoid the cliff?? Because they ARE the market, they can’t just move a trillion$ in CMO/MBS, what do they tell their institutional clients? And any such move would crash markets the same as waiting for the crash. So they just sit paralyzed by size, and wait for the inevitable. Judging probabilities by looking to the market, doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.
If Trump wins, the Republican party will control congress and the white house. No need to bypass anything.
Any attribution of a reason for a crash will be done after the fact. The people who said X will be the reason will gloat ‘see I told you so’ if X also happens even though the underlying cause has been building for years and X is only tenuously at best the straw that broke the camel’s back. what if X doesn’t happen? There will still be a crash but of course a different (incorrect) reason will be attached to it, because people are dumb.
America in decline 
U.S. equity markets reach new high! Yay, makes perfect sense! What could go wrong?
Bill Clinton, the best there ever was…and he chose Hillary.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QAs7k7wTXE autoplay:0]
Pre-approved. 
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QTPVe6-Pso]
You mean like when a lying husband supports his lying wife? Yea, real helpful.
When did he lie?
Bill never lied, he said “it’s none of your business, twats”, cause it wasn’t. 
Just imagine if you were exposed to scrutiny instead of hiding behind the internet? You couldn’t measure up to even 0.1% of Bill Clinton’s greatness. To not respect Bill Clinton is just plain anti-American.
HRC’s puppets at CNN determined that Bill lied last night when talking about his wife… http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/26/politics/democratic-convention-fact-check/index.html
Didn’t trump say he would get rid of the tax loopholes utilized by HF and PE managers and the different treatment of offshore funds vs domestic funds? Also, Trump said GPs and the mgmt companies of the HF and PE have too many tax loopholes and that he will clean them out?? Well I guess bye bye to fat incentive fees and lower tax rates for us working in HF/PE…Plus it is very safe to say Hillary’s relations with Israel is much better than that of Trump’s…Not to mention relations with just about every other nation out there except Russia. We are or most of us are in the finance sector right?
I suspect there is more interest in petty arguing, than analysis on how it would impact markets/paychecks.
Since I’m into volatility and market events I guess in some very small-minded way Trump might be better for me. But bigger picture, I would expect worse for the finance industry. Though it’s hard to know if he would actually try to do the above, or what he’d try to do, since he has a history of lying about everything.
Wow, Trump now ASKING Russia to hack the United States. 
How…is…this…even…real.
MB 4 Pres
Trump Seeks More Foreign Guest Workers For His Companies
The presidential candidate is seeking to bring in 78 servers, housekeepers, and cooks for his Mar-a-Lago resort and nearby golf course. The controversial guest worker program allows employers to import foreign workers when they say there are no Americans who want the jobs.
Mike Bloomberg , a normal person with basic reasoning skills…
[video:https://youtu.be/HaooWYBvIUE autoplay:0]
Trump is more of a demagogue than HRC?
What Mike and others with basic thinking skills have pointed out, there is no comparing these two candidates. Not sure how the “but they are both equal” meme started. Too much TV I guess.