What are the odds that I beat this beast?

I have taken 4 practice exams and planning to take one final one. My scores are as below:

CFAI Mock A:


CFAI Mock B:


Schweser Mocks:



I am most certainly not in my comfort zone (i.e. consistent 70+ grades) and I don’t have time to improve much. I wonder how others have performed on their mocks and whether I still stand a chance to pass with such mock results! There appear to be many candidates here who are scoring in the region of high 70s.

I genuinely feel like crying lol. I feel like I only would have needed one more week to get to the standard that I would be happy with. Oh well… there is always a next year!

Pretend that you’re California Chrome; the last odds I sw on him were 3:5 against: a 5/8 chance of winning the Belmont on Saturday.

You’re California Chrome, and Saturday’s your Belmont.

Lol somehow that actually helped! I thank you!

70%+ is a guaranteed pass if you infer from CFAI’s statement that they’ve never failed anyone with an absolute score of 70% (84/120). So based on the scores you’ve provided, you’ll probably do alright.

A good way to mark yourself is to only count questions correct if you actually knew the content and calculated the question right. If you have to guess, count it wrong. This will give you a more true representation of your abilities.

But I’m going to throw you off a bit too. As a level 2 retake and having just completed morning A with a 78%, these questions are appearing to be relatively easy. We’ll see how the rest of these mocks play out.

I’d say you have about a 40% chance, same as the rest of us :slight_smile:

Money Manager. Thats how I’ve been marking my exams. If I know it I mark it as correct. Dont count any - I cancelled one answere and 50-50’s or whatever. I’m averaging 60 on that. So 72 out of 120.

Using that I have 48 randoms ---- assuming I get one out of three I get 88 - 120 — 73% correct.

I think people should always just do their true scores. Then you know how your’ doing. Just hope I’m not super unlucky on the exam.

Wow! It would be great if people could hold off posting such demotivating info the day before the exam, whether true or not. Of course that is the only CFAI mock I took and I only got a 63%. My confidence just got a whole lot lower than a minute ago, thanks!

Money_Manager is not here to comfort us. I asked for a reality check and he/she got straight to the point! While I also got rather stressed after reading his/her comment, I atleast realized that I need to prepare for the worse. Better to know the exam is going to be horrible now (to mentally prepare yourself) , than get to the exam, get shocked and panic.

The problem is, it’s too late to prepare for the worst. Being anxious about the exam doesn’t help me mentally prepare, but to each his own.

Nonetheless I wish you the very best on the exam. I found this link last night which might help you gain a little confidence:


Pay particular attention to this part:

“- Mock exams: I did about 4-6 each time I passed (did 1 when I failed). Extremely important for identifying weak topic areas, HOWEVER, I never scored above 62/63 in a single mock I ever did, not schweser, not CFA, none. In fact I believe I scored a 58 on the official CFA mock. It only made me study harder in the final weeks. In my personal opinion, mocks are harder than the actual exam, especially the CFA mock, I felt this way for level 1 and level 2.”

Thanks, same to you Kaveh. I would be really happy to have your scores, btw, and I think you have a good shot at the exam. I really need to get off AF as it’s starting to psych me out.

Don’t take it the wrong way. As kaveh_nobari said, I was just trying to provide an honest and fair opinion. You shouldn’t be demotivated because your marks are very good. The 70% mark is only a rumor inferred from previous comments made by the CFAI. Many people use this as their benchmark to determine performance.

Both of you are very close to the fabled 70% that I think you’ll do fine. I included that comment because I didn’t want you to get over-confident and stop reviewing. Don’t let comments like that get you down; rather, get motivated to master as many concepts as you can.

You have been studying hard and putting in lots of hours. You have also been putting up great marks on the mock exams. Remain confident in your abilities and go into the exam with a sharp mind, and you’ll do great.