Recession baby

Who else was long VIX?

This ain’t a buy the dip kind of day. I bought VXX a week ago at $13.99. For real though. Calling it now. 11,000 Dow in six months.


hopefully its the real deal crash and burn.

Hope not, I’m long big league. Will tap margin and switch to levered products of it draws down a ton.

How much money are you really going to make in such a market event, compared to the loss of career opportunities, including those with $100k potential?

yep, last recession derailed my career big time and I struggled a long time to get it where I want it. Can’t find a job when funds are blowing up, banks are laying off people, etc

i just want a down market for a variety of reasons:

i want to see how my companies will do in a down market price/earnings wise. bs wise they are rock solid though. cept maybe the banks. if those blow, they blow up, they’re all levered like crazy.

i want to see which companies will do poorly earnings wise in general. i want to see the ones with debt blow up too. bad companies should not be allowed to live, less comp will be nicer.

also i need a break. so if i get laid off. it wouldnt be the end of the world. i’ve been working non stop for 9 years.

in case i dont get laid off and real estate prices drop. i’ll go buy some since i need to lever up at these rates anywho! but this’ll prolly need higher unemployment.

bottomline we need a reset. for too long shit has been chugging along. and thats not how economies work.

Oh I may double my thousand dollar bet. You never know.

Maybe even triple if I’m lucky.

BGC, here i come. i still dont know whether i am going to do the urban high rise life style or the hacienda. tbh with my current net worth i will prolly have to do the hacienda lifestyle.

Ay, mijo!! Have you asked your esposa if she wants to move??? :confused:

If he’s a real alpha, he’ll just tell her they’re moving.

well technically if i lose my job. we cant afford la. i think she only makes 55k.

Breadmaker: Ay mijo!! blah blah…

JFC, lol

Just warming him up for his in-laws…

Someday Ohai, my comp will be $100k, and then everything I experienced along the way will make sense.

Today at chipotle, the guy was so busy making burritos that he forgot to tell the cashier I ordered double steak. So, like that’s a win I’m content with.

I once ordered chicken and was charged a steak. I coulda went back and made a scene but decided fack it that’s not worth my time!

I want you guys to imagine me sitting at my chair and pounding my fist on the table.

I bought some yesterday

initial position in WFC at $46.59

What made you get in? I would have to take the stance that financials are poor late-cycle performers.

usually the best time to buy a stock is when they are performing like shit.

as an investor, you make your money when times are bad, because you bought it when stuff was cheap.

banks for the most part are selling on average at 10x earnings at a p/b of 1.5. they have performed like dogs in the last 10 years due to the low rates, but yet has consistently earned more money through leverage. the only real issue with them is that they are levered at about 10x their net worth, so if people start defaulting then thats an issue. in addition if negatives rates do happen they will be screwed like most banks outside us. the banks would need to make money through fees as oppose to nim. i think right now there is like 15 trillion of negative rate bonds worldwide.

in terms of wfc and bac. buffett has been selling a ton of wfc shares since 2017 from 484m to 323m shares. while bax has gone from 679m to 925m. not really sure as to why. but there is prolly wisdom in his actions so imma check it out.

So, in response to these two points yesterday the ten year fell what, 11 bps? There’s likely to be a LOT of refinancing happening coming soon right? Which only then starts compounding as problematic for the banking sector if people do start defaulting. Also, it hasn’t happened yet, but we are about to stimulate the absolute [F-word] out of China. It ain’t looking good for these banks right now. Which is why it’s a no for me dog.

Consumer staples, healthcare, energy, materials are what I’d be buying for my portfolio right now if I insisted on buying stocks. But, I have like $20.00 to invest. So, VIX options it is.